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It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. Henry Ford


Those who surrender freedom for security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one. Benjamin Franklin
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The idea that you know what is true is dangerous, for it keeps you imprisoned in the mind. It is when you do not know, that you are free to investigate. ~ Nisargadatta Maharaj

Thursday 13 September 2012

Fed day

I believe todays move was likely an exhaustion,although the S&P certainly exceeded any upside possibility I thought likely (I had 1450 pencilled in as a possibilty).The Dax however reached 7400  again as I had suggested in Saturday's post that it might and I would use the charts I posted yesterday to monitor resistance levels and price behaviour for a sell signal,as suggested yesterday.We are in the seasonal time frame for a top and are approaching the 6 month Gann marker from March's highs.The bulls are saying QE forever and Ben has our back and maybe they are right but I dont see any signs of economic improvement and it is hard to believe that profits are not at some sort of peak in the absence of sales growth.I am old-fashioned enough to believe fundamentals do matter,eventually.
 Obviously the trend is your friend and don't try to short these markets witout some kind of reversal pattern and stop-loss.
Posted by at

5 comments:

  1. Trading Sunset14 September 2012 at 00:09

    Hi chartrambler...

    I was waiting for some decent clarification on the whole QE thing today..finally, ZH provide it...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/feds-balance-end-2013-4-trillion

    --

    So, todays annoucement was 40bn MBS until year end, and then 40bn MBS + 45bn NEW t-bill buying.

    QE3 indeed has begun, and its at least 1.2 trn across 15months.

    That is a HUGE number, and no one is stating it as that..yet.
    ---

    I would agree entirely, earnings ARE everything, and since fundamentals are not improving, I'd expect weakness..at some point.

    Yet, the trend IS still up on a monthly basis.

    Indeed, risky to short for anything more than a few days..if at all.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Chartrambler14 September 2012 at 00:26

    Thanks for that link PD. I hear what you are saying ! Combination of an overbought market and 2 major Gann levels and cycle combo (I'm mainly talking Dax) SHOULD produce a decent reversal but all rules seem to have been thrown out of the window ! Maybe currencies would be more fruitful :-)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous14 September 2012 at 01:24

    Two to four weeks more bully? It may take an external event to stop the monetary insanity or the markets addiction to same. Are those jet engines I hear revving in Israel?

    Jxxd

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous14 September 2012 at 04:37

    All great comments guys. Look at the BBs and R3 vs the pop. We can throw TA out the window if this holds. Wyle at Ian's

    ReplyDelete
  5. Chartrambler14 September 2012 at 11:58

    Hey Jxxd ! Good to hear from you

    ReplyDelete

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